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The chance comes from the ratio of your stake's value to the price of the item you picked. Stake more or pick a cheaper target and the chance goes up. A target twice the price of your stake gives a higher chance than one eight times the price. The chance has a lower and an upper limit, so you can't pick a target that is too cheap or too expensive for your stake.
Target prices come from the market and are updated once a day, so the chance doesn't jump from minute to minute.
The outcome of every upgrade is set by a server seed fixed before the roll, your client seed and the game number. The result cannot be swapped after you start. You can verify any game you played with the “Verify” button in your upgrade history, and the Provably Fair page explains how the check works.
A case drops a random item from its contents. In an upgrade you choose the exact item you want and see your chance of getting it in advance. That makes the upgrade handy when you need a particular arcana, immortal or set and cases keep dropping cheaper items.
It is a trade of your Dota 2 items for a more expensive one with a chance you know in advance. You choose the stake and the target, and a single roll decides whether you get it.
No. Only items in your SpyDota inventory take part in an upgrade — for example, items dropped from cases. You can add an amount from your balance to them.
Up to six. If the stake also includes an amount from your balance, up to five items.
The staked items burn and the balance amount is spent. So check the chance before you start: it can't be changed after you press “Upgrade”.
Yes. The win goes to your inventory as a regular item: you can withdraw it to Steam, sell it or stake it in the next upgrade.
Open your upgrade history and press “Verify” next to the game. The Provably Fair page explains how the result is derived from the seeds and the game number.